Market Terms
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Posted in : Investing:
- On : May 24, 2004
Get out your rally monkey! Just in case you missed it, the markets have moved off the bottom after executing a neat, reverse head-and-shoulders technical formation.
Oops—pardon my lapse into technical jargon.
In case that really was too technical for you, I want to prepare you for the coming bull market on CNBC. Let’s join two young buy side analysts discussing their day at the local coffeehouse . . .
“It’s been tough out there these last few years—no more Goldilocks economy; too many leprechaun leaders,” says one analyst.
“I agree,” says his friend. “I have spent too many days trading QUIPS when I should be looking for a Bo Derek. But my boss keeps telling me to forget that and concentrate on Jennifer Lopez.”
“Ha!” snorts the first analyst. “We’d probably both be better off chasing cats and dogs, although with our luck, we could catch a dead cat bounce instead! Think I’ll stick to scripophily.”
In the language of Wall Street and CNBC, our buy side friends work for a larger institution where they are tasked with buying larger amounts of stocks.
Their lament over the lack of a Goldilocks economy refers to the latter half of the 1990s, when the economy was “not too hot—not too cold—but just right.” Everything was fine, of course, until the three bears (or bear market) came home for breakfast.
A ‘leprechaun leader’ is a corporate manager or executive who, like the fabled Irish elf, is a mischievous and elusive creature said to possess buried treasures of money and gold. According to Irish folklore, the location of hidden treasure is only revealed when the leprechaun is caught. In the case of a market leprechaun leader, the ‘buried treasure’ is often not buried, but rather in a protected offshore account!
The second analyst is not a comedian; he is trading Quarterly Income Preferred Securities (QUIPS). QUIPS are an example of hybrid securities, combining features of preferred stock and corporate bonds. These hybrids generally pay a higher rate of return than preferred stock.
And no, these men are not fantasizing over beautiful women. A Bo Derek is a perfect stock, as in Bo, the perfect woman. An alternative to a Bo is a Jennifer Lopez, or a stock that is charting a nice rounded bottom. (I’ll let you draw the analogy.)
Cats and dogs, in this conversation, is slang for speculative stocks that have short or suspicious histories for sales, earnings, dividends, etc. In a bull market, analysts will often mention that everything is going up, even the dogs and cats. When they do fall, the result can be a dead cat bounce, referring to a temporary recovery by a market or stock after a prolonged decline or bear market. In most cases, the recovery is momentary and the market will continue to fall. Think: “Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough!”
And scripophily is not a game—it’s the avocation of collecting old, worthless stock certificates.
Finally, going back to my original terminology, head-and-shoulders is a technical analysis term used to describe a chart formation in which a stock, or the market, rises to a peak and subsequently declines, followed by a third rise that does not exceed the second. This signals that a major reversal has occurred. What’s relevant is that when this formation occurs in the reverse, it generally signals the turning point from a stock or market going down to one that is heading back up.
That’s where we are today, and that’s why you need your rally monkey. (If you have no idea what a rally monkey is, ask a fan of the Angels baseball team.)
